{"id":1179,"date":"2025-09-23T21:58:55","date_gmt":"2025-09-23T21:58:55","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/diegogarciadelrio.com\/?p=1179"},"modified":"2025-09-26T11:46:22","modified_gmt":"2025-09-26T11:46:22","slug":"analysis-and-opinion-by-diego-garcia-del-rio-achv-zvra-and-crnx-23-09-2025","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/diegogarciadelrio.com\/en\/analysis-and-opinion-by-diego-garcia-del-rio-achv-zvra-and-crnx-23-09-2025\/","title":{"rendered":"ANALYSIS AND OPINION BY DIEGO GARC\u00cdA DEL R\u00cdO: $ACHV, $ZVRA AND $CRNX - 09\/23\/2025"},"content":{"rendered":"

In a market where it is difficult to find opportunities that really deserve attention, I am Diego Garc\u00eda del R\u00edo<\/strong> and in this analysis I highlight three companies: Achieve Life Sciences ($ACHV), Zevra Therapeutics ($ZVRA), and Crinetics Pharmaceuticals ($CRNX).<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

ACHV moves forward with cytisinicline<\/strong> for tobacco cessation; ZVRA drives MIPLYFFA<\/strong> in rare diseases; and CRNX is approaching the PDUFA of paltusotine for acromegaly<\/strong>scheduled for Friday, September 25. Each section offers key metrics, target price estimates and market patterns, geared towards professionals looking for opportunities in speculative biotechs with high growth potential.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Before going into the analysis, I leave you a table with the current price of these assets and the target price. Me, Diego Garc\u00eda del R\u00edo<\/strong>estimate these targets based on medium\/long-term potential:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

TICKER<\/td>CURRENT PRICE<\/td>TARGET PRICE<\/td>UPSIDE %<\/td><\/tr>
ACHV<\/td>2.95 USD<\/td>16.00 USD<\/td>442.37%<\/td><\/tr>
ZVRA<\/td>8.11 USD<\/td>24.00 USD<\/td>195.93%<\/td><\/tr>
CRNX<\/td>33.72 USD<\/td>72.00 USD<\/td>113.53%<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

*Price targets are based on market potential, revenue projections and regulatory approvals, with upward adjustments for successful launches, but subject to industry risks.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

This analysis addresses their immediate catalysts, key metrics and market perspectives<\/strong>with a focus on high-potential speculative opportunities.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

$ACHV: Fundamental X-Ray and Value Potential in Cytisinicline<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

In my opinion, as Diego Garc\u00eda del R\u00edo, Achieve Life Sciences ($ACHV)<\/strong> is a non-revenue biotechnology company focused on developing cytisinicline<\/strong>a smoking cessation drug with solid liquidity but growing losses and high risk linked to clinical success.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Achieve Life Sciences ($ACHV)<\/strong> is a biotechnology company focused on the development of cytisinicline<\/strong>, a late-stage smoking cessation drug, with no revenues due to its pre-commercial stage and total dependence on external funding to advance clinical trials and regulations. With a market cap<\/strong> of approximately 150.76 million<\/strong> and a business value<\/strong> from 105.32 million<\/strong> as of September 2025, the company is listed at 2.96 dollars per share<\/strong>with 51.1 million shares outstanding<\/strong> and a float of 41.82 million<\/strong>. Your beta of 1.54<\/strong> indicates an above-market volatility, typical of speculative biotechs, while the institutional ownership reaches 61.42%<\/strong>indicating interest from professional investors, although the insiders retain only the 4.24%<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the income statement, ACHV recorded zero revenues<\/strong> in the last twelve months (LTM), with operating loss of US$ 50.11 million<\/strong> and a net loss of TTM 50.42 million<\/strong>equivalent to a Diluted EPS of -$1.48<\/strong>. For Q2 2025 (ended June 30), the net loss was 12.7 million<\/strong>driven by R&D expenditures, which grew 28% year-over-year<\/strong> from a loss of 39.83 million in 2024. Profit and operating margins are zero, with a ROA of -50.63%<\/strong> y ROE of -120.11% TTM<\/strong>, reflecting a high consumption of capital with no immediate returns.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The balance sheet shows a strengthened financial position due to a recent public offering that raised US$49.3 million<\/strong>resulting in 55.4 million in cash and cash equivalents at the end of Q2 2025<\/strong>, in front of a total debt of only 9.96 million<\/strong>. This generates a current ratio of 6.64<\/strong> and a shareholders' equity of 20.90 million<\/strong> at the end of 2024, with a book value per share of US$ 0.84<\/strong> and a price\/book ratio of 3.62<\/strong>. Total assets amounted to 38.63 million at the end of 2024, with liabilities of 17.73 million, providing a estimated runway to 2027<\/strong> without additional dilutions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The analysts' consensus reflects optimism<\/strong>with predominant ratings of \"Buy<\/strong>\"(Buy) from firms such as H.C. Wainwright, Oppenheimer, Rodman & Renshaw, Jones Trading, CG Capital and Raymond James, and target prices between US$11.00 and US$20.00<\/strong> per share. The average target price of $15.50<\/strong> involves a revaluation potential >400%<\/strong> from the current closing price, based on projections of regulatory success and commercialization of cytisinicline.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The potential market for cytisinicline<\/strong> is vast, with the global smoking cessation therapy sector projected to grow at 5.2 billion dollars by 2028<\/strong>aimed at some of the 1.2 billion smokers worldwide<\/strong>particularly in the USA and Europe where the prevalence exceeds 20%. Recent milestones, such as the NDA submission to FDA in Q2 2025<\/strong> and a strategic alliance with Omnicom for marketing<\/strong>together with data published in Thorax<\/em> on its efficacy in patients with COPD<\/strong>ACHV is positioned for a possible approval in 2026<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"ACHIEVE
Source: Achieve Life Sciences ($ACHV) Logo | Google<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

$ACHV: Key Catalysts<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Potential catalysts for Achieve Life Sciences ($ACHV) <\/strong>are as follows:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    \n
  • FDA PDUFA Decision (June 20, 2026):<\/strong> The approval of cytisinicline<\/strong> could enable the commercial launch, prompting action in the face of a 5.2 billion dollar market<\/strong> projected for 2028.
    <\/li>\n\n\n\n
  • Progress in commercial alliances (Q4 2025-Q1 2026):<\/strong> Collaboration with Omnicom<\/strong> for the launch could generate payer coverage announcements or market strategies, improving the perception of execution.
    <\/li>\n\n\n\n
  • Conference presentations (Q3-Q4 2025):<\/strong> Events such as H.C. Wainwright (8 Sep 2025)<\/strong> y Lake Street BIG9 (11 Sep 2025)<\/strong> could reveal new clinical data or projections, generating positive volatility.
    <\/li>\n\n\n\n
  • Clinical or indicative updates (2025-2026):<\/strong> Data in COPD patients<\/strong> or other cytisinicline extensions would reinforce confidence in the pipeline.
    <\/li>\n\n\n\n
  • Quarterly reports (2025):<\/strong> reports showing runway extended beyond 2027 (55.4M in cash)<\/strong> or operational improvements could attract analyst upgrades<\/strong> and greater institutional interest.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n

    Of all of these, the most relevant catalyst for Achieve Life Sciences ($ACHV)<\/strong> is the FDA PDUFA decision on cytisinicline on June 20, 2026<\/strong>. An approval would not only open the door to the commercial launch of the first truly competitive smoking cessation treatment in decades, but would also position the company within a market estimated at 5.2 billion dollars by 2028<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    <\/p>\n\n\n\n

    $ACHV: Analysis of your Option Chain<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

    Considering that the data are mid-September 2025<\/strong>In view of the low trading volume and expected movements until December, I would take into account the following.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    The total volume of options<\/strong> are usually extremely low, especially when tracking inter-session activity, reflecting limited liquidity<\/strong> y little immediate speculative interest<\/strong>typical of a small-cap biotech precommercial<\/strong> with capitalization of ~150M of dollars<\/strong>. A low volume like this suggests neutrality in the daily flow<\/strong>The number of transactions per day is not statistically significant given the remarkably low average number of transactions per day.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    In contrast, the open interest (OI)<\/strong> shows a strong upward bias<\/strong>: OI puts = 658<\/strong> in the face of OI calls = 18,935<\/strong>resulting in a put\/call ratio of current OI = 0.03<\/strong> (well below the conventional bearish threshold of 0.7). This asymmetry indicates positioning in calls<\/strong>possibly anticipating catalysts such as the PDUFA of cytisinicline in June 2026<\/strong>with greater exposure to upside<\/strong> than to the downside.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    \"Achieve
    Source: Achieve Life Sciences Inc (ACHV) PUT\/CALL Ratio | Barchart<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

    The implied volatility (IV)<\/strong> is located in 262.05%<\/strong>with a rank of 30.63%<\/strong> y 89% percentile<\/strong>pointing out expectations of large movements<\/strong> although not at recent historical peaks, in line with the historical volatility of 72.14%<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    For the expiration on December 18, 2026<\/strong> (~15 months remaining), the expected movement is \u00b11.40 dollars (\u00b145.83%)<\/strong> from the current price of 3.06 dollars<\/strong>with a superior rank of 4.46 dollars<\/strong> and lower than 1.66 dollars<\/strong>. This implies a symmetrical upside and downside potential of 45.75%<\/strong>although it is reinforced by the bias in calls<\/strong> that medium-term options traders show.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    \"Achieve
    Source: Achieve Life Sciences Inc (ACHV) Expected Move | Barchart<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

    $ACHV: Technical Analysis<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

    Technical analysis of Achieve Life Sciences ($ACHV)<\/strong> shows a price structure in a phase of consolidation with an upward bias<\/strong>The stock is trading within a range of 1.5 billion euros, according to the latest chart data as of September 23, 2025. The stock trades within a descending lateral range<\/strong> from July's highs (~$4.50), with a moderate volume<\/strong> which has not yet generated significant breaks. Currently, the price remains above the EMA 50<\/strong> and still below the 200 EMA, which reflects a short-term bullish tone<\/strong> within a larger corrective framework.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    In intermediate time frames, there is a significant rising wedge<\/strong>delimited by a resistance around 3.50 dollars<\/strong> and a support on 2.40 dollars<\/strong>. This pattern, historically resolved on the upside in a 60-70% of cases<\/strong>could be triggered by a volume spike above 1.5M shares per day<\/strong>anticipating a technical breakthrough even before the most relevant fundamental catalyst, the PDUFA June 2026<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    The RSI (14)<\/strong> remains in the neutral zone (~45), with no significant bearish divergences, while the MACD<\/strong> histograms, but without a confirmed bearish crossover, suggesting a technical pause prior to a directional movement<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    The current structure aims at a cautious medium-term upward bias<\/strong>with a first objective around 3.80 dollars<\/strong> after the wedge breaks, conditioned to the volumetric confirmation and regulatory news developments<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    \"ACHV
    Source: Achieve Life Sciences Inc (ACHV) TF 2H | TradingView<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

    $ZVRA: Fundamentals of an Innovation in Rare Diseases<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

    From my analysis, Diego Garc\u00eda del R\u00edo, Zevra Therapeutics ($ZVRA)<\/strong> is a biotechnology company with increasing revenues<\/strong>focused on MIPLYFFA<\/strong> for hypersomnia and narcolepsy, with strong liquidity<\/strong> after selling a PRV<\/strong>but with operating losses<\/strong> and risk linked to clinical and regulatory success.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Zevra Therapeutics ($ZVRA)<\/strong> is a biotechnology company specializing in the development and commercialization of treatments for rare diseases<\/strong>with its main product MIPLYFFA (formerly KP1077)<\/strong> approved for the idiopathic hypersomnia disorder<\/strong> and in development for narcolepsy<\/strong>along with other pipeline candidates such as arimoclomol<\/strong> for Niemann-Pick type C disease. In early commercial stage but with growing revenues<\/strong>operates with a market capitalization of 446.27 million dollars<\/strong> and a enterprise value of 305.94 million<\/strong> as of September 23, 2025, quoted at 7.95 dollars per share<\/strong>with 56.14 million shares outstanding<\/strong> and a float of 46.89 million<\/strong>. Your beta of 1.56<\/strong> reflects high volatility, while the institutional ownership of 65.04%<\/strong> indicates strong investor backing, although insiders maintain only the 0.73%<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    In the income statement, ZVRA generated net revenues TTM of US$62.02 million<\/strong>with a 486% year-over-year growth in Q2 2025<\/strong> where the net sales reached 25.9 million<\/strong>driven by MIPLYFFA with 21.8 million in sales<\/strong>. However, it recorded a 60.41 million TTM operating loss of<\/strong> and a net loss TTM of -0.25 dollars per share<\/strong>although the net result was positive by 2.64 million<\/strong> thanks to non-operating income. For Q2 2025, it reported a EPS of -0.06 dollars<\/strong>below expectations but with revenue exceeding estimates by 14.8%<\/strong>. The ratios show ROA of -18.85%<\/strong> y ROE of 3.53%<\/strong>with 72% gross margins<\/strong> but pressured by rising expenses.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    The balance sheet at the end of 2024 showed total assets of $178.13 million<\/strong>, liabilities of 138.46 million<\/strong> y total debt of 60.30 million<\/strong>resulting in a book value per share of US$ 0.71<\/strong> and a P\/B of 3.81<\/strong>. Strengthened by the sale of a PRV for 150 million<\/strong> in Q2 2025, the cash exceeds 200 million<\/strong>extending the financial runway to 2028<\/strong> without immediate dilutions and with a current ratio >5x<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    The analysts' consensus reflects optimism<\/strong>with predominant ratings of \"Buy<\/strong>\"(Buy) from firms such as Citizens JMP, Cantor Fitzgerald, H.C. Wainwright and Guggenheim<\/strong>, y price targets between US$18.00 and US$29.00<\/strong>. The average target price of $22.80<\/strong> involves a revaluation potential >180%<\/strong> from the current level, based on projections of business expansion<\/strong> y additional approvals<\/strong> in the pipeline.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    The potential ZVRA market<\/strong> is substantial: MIPLYFFA<\/strong> points to a market for hypersomnia and narcolepsy valued in the billions, with 2025 sales projections of 80 million<\/strong> (from previous 48). The global market for therapies for rare diseases will grow at a CAGR of 13.8% to 495 billion in 2033<\/strong>. Recent milestones include positive data from MIPLYFFA in September 2025<\/strong>, payer coverage to 52%<\/strong>a 500% revenue growth year-over-year<\/strong>and advances in assays for arimoclomol<\/strong>positioning the company for approvals in 2026.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Without a P\/E trailing<\/strong> available for transition to profitability, but with a forward P\/E of 10.06<\/strong> and a price\/sales of 6.84<\/strong>ZVRA currently has a attractive valuation for your business momentum<\/strong>although with an investment of moderate risk<\/strong> in biotechs with real revenues and a diversified pipeline, also exposed to regulatory volatility<\/strong>competition in rare and possible future dilutions<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    <\/p>\n\n\n\n

    \"ZEVRA
    Source: Zevra Therapeutics ($ZVRA) Logo | Google<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

    $ZVRA: Key Catalysts<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

    Mainly, the potential catalysts of Zevra Therapeutics ($ZVRA)<\/strong> are as follows:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

      \n
    • Presentations at medical conferences (Q3-Q4 2025):<\/strong> Updates at INPDA and CNS on MIPLYFFA and OLPRUVA could validate long-term efficacy data and attract payer coverage.
      <\/li>\n\n\n\n
    • Investor conferences (Q3-Q4 2025):<\/strong> Participation in events such as Cantor Global Healthcare and H.C. Wainwright could reveal breakthroughs in sales and pipeline, driving analyst upgrades.
      <\/li>\n\n\n\n
    • Progress in trials of KP1077 for narcolepsy (H2 2025):<\/strong> Phase 2 topline in idiopathic hypersomnia and Phase 3 initiation in narcolepsy could support a future NDA, targeting a multibillion-dollar sleep disorders market.
      <\/li>\n\n\n\n
    • Financial updates (Q3-Q4 2025):<\/strong> Reports showing MIPLYFFA revenue growth (projected at 80 million by 2025) and runway extended to 2028 with over 200 million in cash could bolster institutional confidence.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n

      Taking into account each one, the most relevant catalyst for Zevra Therapeutics ($ZVRA)<\/strong> in the short term is the progress in KP1077 trials for narcolepsy<\/strong> during the second half of 2025. The release of results from Phase 2 in idiopathic hypersomnia<\/strong> and the beginning of a Phase 3 in narcolepsy<\/strong> could support a future NDA and position the company in the multi-billion dollar sleep disorders market. This clinical breakthrough has the potential to become the primary driver of valuation and attraction of institutional capital.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

      $ZVRA: Analysis of your Option Chain<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

      Again, and I will repeat myself, based on data. mid-September 2025<\/strong>along with emphasis on the put\/call ratio (OI)<\/strong>trading volume, expected movements until December and recent unusual volumes<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

      The total volume of options<\/strong> is on the rise, taking into account its average and prioritizing calls per session,<\/strong> which reflects a growing speculative interest<\/strong> in a mid-cap biotech (~446M market cap)<\/strong> with commercial momentum in MIPLYFFA<\/strong>. This high volume generates a put\/call volume ratio = 0.08<\/strong> (well below 0.7, the bearish threshold), indicating a strongly upward flow<\/strong> in daily transactions, possibly driven by catalysts such as the arimoclomol PDUFA<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

      The open interest (OI)<\/strong> reinforces this bias: puts = 11,139<\/strong> in the face of calls = 38,499<\/strong>resulting in a put\/call ratio of OI = 0.29<\/strong> (also below 0.7). This disparity suggests sustained positioning in calls<\/strong>anticipating upside in MIPLYFFA sales<\/strong> or regulatory approvals, with less downside exposure despite the inherent volatility of the sector.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

      \"Zevra
      Source: Zevra Therapeutics Inc (ZVRA) PUT\/CALL Ratio | Barchart<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

      Also to note, I found several unusual volumes in large blocks (18 Sep 2025)<\/strong>consisting of operations by ~3.8M in premiums<\/strong>predominantly bullish:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

        \n
      • Purchase of 9,000 calls (strike 49, exp. Jan 2026, 115 DTE)<\/strong> a 7.49 $\/contract<\/strong>total premium ~2.1M<\/strong>.
        <\/li>\n\n\n\n
      • Purchase of 14,000 calls (strike 49, exp. Jan 2026)<\/strong>total premium ~0.9M<\/strong>.
        <\/li>\n\n\n\n
      • Sale of 5,000 puts (strike 49, exp. Dec 2026, 45 DTE)<\/strong> a 7.49 $<\/strong>premium ~0.8M<\/strong> \u2192 implicit bullish position<\/strong>.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n

        These blocks, with volumes\/OI of up to 526% in calls<\/strong>reflect institutional interest in upside leverage<\/strong> medium term, linked to expectations of revenue growth 2025<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

        \"Zevra
        Source: Zevra Therapeutics Inc (ZVRA) Options Volume | Unusual Whales<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

        The implied volatility (IV)<\/strong> reaches 122.87%<\/strong>with rank 38.14%<\/strong> y percentile 72%<\/strong>which denotes expectations of moderate significant movements<\/strong>higher than the historical volatility (79.69%)<\/strong>in line with the transition to profitability.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

        For the expiration January 16, 2026 (~115 DTE)<\/strong>the expected movement is \u00b12.98 $ (\u00b136.84%)<\/strong> from the current price of 8.08 $<\/strong>with a higher rank in 11.07 $<\/strong> and lower in 5.15 $<\/strong>. This implies a symmetrical upside and downside potential<\/strong>although supported by the bias in calls<\/strong> that show the institutional flows.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

        \"Zevra
        Source: Zevra Therapeutics Inc (ZVRA) Expected Move | Barchart<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

        $ZVRA: Technical Analysis<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

        Continuing with Zevra Therapeutics ($ZVRA)<\/strong>its technical analysis points to a rebound <\/strong>within a short-term downtrend<\/strong>based on the daily chart at September 23, 2025<\/strong>. The current price<\/strong> is located around 8.11 dollars<\/strong>after a sustained decline from July's highs (~12.50 dollars<\/strong>) to mark ground in 7.16 dollars<\/strong> at the beginning of September. From that level there has been a partial recovery, although still insufficient to invalidate the selling pressure.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

        The EMA 20 and 50<\/strong> The price remains in a clearly bearish configuration, with the price below both, reflecting the fact that the bias is still to the downside. structural weakness<\/strong>. The rebound has allowed the recovery of the 7.50 dollars<\/strong>but the immediate resistances are in the range of 8.50-8.75 dollars<\/strong>. Only a break with volume greater than 2.5M shares\/day<\/strong> would pave the way for an initial target towards 10.50 dollars<\/strong>coinciding with the screening of the EMA 200<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

        The RSI (14)<\/strong> is located around 42<\/strong>after coming out of oversold conditions, confirming an easing of the bearish pressure but still lacking relative strength. The MACD<\/strong> shows a incipient bullish crossover<\/strong>supporting the rebound, although without solid momentum to suggest a change in trend.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

        This reflects a scenario of tactical recovery within a bearish structure<\/strong>with a very short-term neutral-bullish bias, subject to the breakout of resistance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

        \"ZVRA
        Source: Zevra Therapeutics Inc (ZVRA) TF 1D | TradingView<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

        $CRNX: Fundamental Analysis of the Next Rare Endocrinology Revolution<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

        Under my approach, Diego Garc\u00eda del R\u00edo, Crinetics Pharmaceuticals ($CRNX)<\/strong> is a biotechnology company focused on oral therapies for rare endocrine diseases<\/strong>with its biggest bet on paltusotine (PDUFA on September 25, 2025)<\/strong> for acromegaly. <\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

        Crinetics Pharmaceuticals ($CRNX)<\/strong> is a biotechnology company focused on the development of innovative oral therapies for rare endocrine diseases<\/strong>as paltusotine (PALSONIFY\u2122)<\/strong> under review by the FDA<\/strong> for acromegaly<\/strong> dated PDUFA estimated for September 25, 2025<\/strong>and other pipeline candidates such as atumelnant<\/strong> for congenital adrenal hyperplasia and endocrine tumors. With no significant revenues due to its pre-commercial stage, it has explosive sales projections<\/strong> by achieving commercialization. With a market capitalization of 3.18 billion dollars<\/strong> and a enterprise value of 2.03 billion<\/strong> as of September 23, 2025, the company is trading at 33.72 dollars per share<\/strong>with 94.18 million shares outstanding<\/strong>. Your beta of 0.28<\/strong> indicates lower volatility than the market, whereas the institutional ownership exceeds 114.81%<\/strong>reflecting strong investor confidence, although the insiders maintain only the 2.01%<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

        In the income statement, CRNX generated TTM revenue of US$1.39 million<\/strong>mainly from minor collaborations, with a TTM operating loss of $424.45 million<\/strong> and a net loss TTM of 369.83 million<\/strong>equivalent to a EPS of -$4.10<\/strong>. For the Q2 2025<\/strong>reported revenues of 1.03 million<\/strong> (below estimates) and a net loss of $115.6 million<\/strong>driven by spending on R&D and SG&A<\/strong> which grew from 74.1 million in Q2 2024. The ratios show ROA of -23.77%<\/strong> y ROE of -36.94%<\/strong>with zero margins given the stage of development. Analysts project a EPS of -$4.65 in 2025<\/strong> and a revenue growth of 529% per year<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

        The balance sheet as of the end of Q2 2025 shows 1.2 billion in cash<\/strong>, in front of a total debt of only 49.94 million<\/strong>resulting in a current ratio >20x<\/strong> and a book value per share of US$ 12.46<\/strong> (P\/B of 2.71). This position provides a financial runway to 2029<\/strong> without immediate dilutions, backed by previous financing and collaborations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

        The analysts' consensus reflects optimism<\/strong>with a predominance of qualifications \"Buy<\/strong>\"(Buy) of Cantor Fitzgerald, Citizens JMP, Jones Trading, Stifel, Piper Sandler and H.C. Wainwright<\/strong>together with a \"Maintain<\/strong>\"(Hold) of Goldman Sachs. The target prices range from US$36.00 to US$97.00<\/strong>with a average of $74.20<\/strong>which implies a revaluation potential >120%<\/strong> from the current level, based on the regulatory success and future commercialization of paltusotine.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

        The potential CRNX market<\/strong> is substantial: paltusotine<\/strong> points to a market for acromegaly valued at >$2 billion<\/strong>with a 20,000 patients in the U.S.<\/strong> who currently rely on daily injections, which provides an opportunity for disruption with oral administration<\/strong>. Sales projections for 2025 are in excess of 450 million post-approval<\/strong>while the market for Rare endocrine therapies will grow at a CAGR of 8-10% until 2030.<\/strong>. Recent milestones include positive phase 3 data in ENDO 2025<\/strong>, orphan drug designation for atumelnant<\/strong> and advances in CRN12755<\/strong> for Graves' disease, positioning the company for multiple approvals 2026-2027<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

        \"CRINETICS
        Source: Crinetics Pharmaceuticals ($CRNX) Logo | Google<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

        $CRNX: Key Catalysts<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

        Main catalysts for Crinetics Pharmaceuticals ($CRNX):<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

          \n
        • FDA PDUFA decision for paltusotine (September 25, 2025):<\/strong> approval in acromegaly<\/strong> could enable commercial launch with peak sales estimated at 1,000M<\/strong> within a 1.5 billion global market<\/strong>.
          <\/li>\n\n\n\n
        • Updates on atumelnant assays (H2 2025):<\/strong> start of Phase 3 in adults<\/strong> y Phase 2b\/3 in pediatrics<\/strong> for congenital adrenal hyperplasia, in conjunction with topline in carcinoid syndrome<\/strong>would validate the pipeline.
          <\/li>\n\n\n\n
        • Presentations at medical conferences (Q3-Q4 2025):<\/strong> at ENDO 2025<\/strong>abstracts on paltusotine, atumelnant and CRN12755<\/strong> could reveal additional efficacy data, attracting coverage.
          <\/li>\n\n\n\n
        • Investor conferences (Q3 2025):<\/strong> events such as Jefferies Global Healthcare (5 Jun 2025)<\/strong> and the like could provide updates on business readiness and projections.
          <\/li>\n\n\n\n
        • Financial updates (Q3-Q4 2025):<\/strong> reports showing 340-380M cash usage in 2025<\/strong> and runway until 2029 with 1.2B in liquidity<\/strong> would strengthen institutional confidence.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n

          The most relevant catalyst for Crinetics Pharmaceuticals ($CRNX)<\/strong> is the closest, the FDA PDUFA decision on paltusotine on September 25, 2025<\/strong>. An approval in acromegaly would enable the immediate commercial launch<\/strong>with estimated peak sales of US$ 1 billion<\/strong> within a global market of approximately 1.5 billion<\/strong>. This regulatory milestone is critical to CRNX's valuation, marking its move from a company without significant revenues to a potential leader in oral endocrine therapies.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

          $CRNX: Analysis of your Option Chain<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

          Finally, in data mid-September 2025<\/strong>and taking into account the put\/call ratio (OI)<\/strong>trading volume and expected movements until december<\/strong>I interpret as follows.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

          The total volume of options<\/strong> is moderate<\/strong>with its average volumes highlighted in calls<\/strong> in each session, reflecting a sustained speculative interest<\/strong> in a large-cap biotech (~3.18B market cap)<\/strong> with imminent catalysts such as the paltusotine PDUFA<\/strong>. This volume generates a put\/call volume ratio = 0.26<\/strong> (below 0.7), which indicates a predominantly upward flow<\/strong>possibly (more than likely, let's be clear) driven by expectations of regulatory approval.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

          The open interest (OI)<\/strong> confirms a strong upward bias<\/strong>: puts = 790<\/strong> in the face of calls = 11,432<\/strong>with a put\/call ratio of OI = 0.07<\/strong> (well below 0.7). This asymmetry reflects long-term institutional positioning in calls<\/strong>anticipating significant upside of clinical and commercial milestones<\/strong>with limited downside exposure despite the proximity of the FDA decision.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

          \"Crinetics
          Source: Crinetics Pharmaceuticals Inc (CRNX) PUT\/CALL Ratio | Barchart
          <\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

          The implied volatility (IV)<\/strong> is located in 83.60%<\/strong>with rank 92.44%<\/strong> y percentile 99%<\/strong>reflecting expectations of large movements at historical peaks<\/strong>well above the historical volatility (49.69%)<\/strong>in line with the pre-launch phase.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

          For the expiration December 19, 2025 (~87 DTE)<\/strong>the expected movement is \u00b16.95 $ (\u00b119.37%)<\/strong> from the current price of 35.95 $<\/strong>with a superior rank of 42.84 $<\/strong> and lower than 28.94 $<\/strong>. This implies a upside potential of 19,14%<\/strong> vs bearish from 19.50%<\/strong>supporting the bias in calls<\/strong> as the dominant strategy in the short-medium term.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

          \"Crinetics
          Source: Crinetics Pharmaceuticals Inc (CRNX) Expected Move | Barchart<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

          $CRNX: Technical Analysis<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

          And following the same structure that I am following, the technical analysis of Crinetics Pharmaceuticals ($CRNX)<\/strong>what it shows me is a transition from a phase of lateral consolidation<\/strong> towards a upward bias<\/strong>again, based on the data from September 23, 2025<\/strong>. The current price<\/strong> around the 35.80 dollars<\/strong>after bouncing from key support at around 30.50 dollars<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

          The action remained for several weeks in a consolidation range between $30 and $35<\/strong>until it was confirmed a upward crossover of moving averages<\/strong>: the 50 EMA outperformed the 200 EMA<\/strong>validating a possible change of momentum<\/strong>. The immediate resistance zone is located at 38.00 dollars<\/strong>whose breakup with volume >1.5M shares\/day<\/strong> would open the way to a potential target in 45.00 dollars<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

          The RSI (14)<\/strong> is located at 61 points<\/strong>The market is showing buying strength but is not yet overbought. The MACD<\/strong> exhibits a new positive crossover<\/strong>reinforcing the hypothesis of bullish continuity after the recent correction.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

          This places us in a medium-term upward bias<\/strong>conditioned to the overcoming of the 38.00 dollars<\/strong>with a risk of backward movement towards 32.50-33.00 dollars<\/strong> if the rupture is not confirmed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

          \"CRNX
          Source: Crinetics Pharmaceuticals Inc (CRNX) TF 4H | TradingView<\/figcaption><\/figure>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

          En un mercado donde resulta dif\u00edcil encontrar oportunidades que realmente merezcan la atenci\u00f3n, soy Diego Garc\u00eda del R\u00edo y en este an\u00e1lisis destaco tres compa\u00f1\u00edas: Achieve Life Sciences ($ACHV), Zevra Therapeutics ($ZVRA) y Crinetics Pharmaceuticals ($CRNX). ACHV avanza con cytisinicline para la cesaci\u00f3n tab\u00e1quica; ZVRA impulsa MIPLYFFA en enfermedades raras; y CRNX se aproxima a […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":1187,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[31,13],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1179","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analisis-de-activos","category-markets-by-diego"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/diegogarciadelrio.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1179","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/diegogarciadelrio.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/diegogarciadelrio.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/diegogarciadelrio.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/diegogarciadelrio.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1179"}],"version-history":[{"count":10,"href":"https:\/\/diegogarciadelrio.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1179\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1256,"href":"https:\/\/diegogarciadelrio.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1179\/revisions\/1256"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/diegogarciadelrio.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/1187"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/diegogarciadelrio.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1179"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/diegogarciadelrio.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1179"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/diegogarciadelrio.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1179"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}