Asset Analysis · November 2025
About critical metals for the energy transition, of all the companies that are present in the market, TMC the metals company Inc. ($TMC) It appears to be an interesting speculative investment: a company seeking to extract nickel, cobalt, copper and manganese from deepwater polymetallic nodules, with the objective of supplying battery and renewable supply chains from an alternative source to traditional land-based mining.
Investment thesis
Here is a table showing the current price and estimated valuation scenarios, based on medium- to long-term operational and financial potential, as well as the regulatory outcome (NOAA/ISA) and the degree of implementation of the production plan projected through 2027.
| Scenario | Target price | Upside/Downside |
|---|---|---|
| Pessimistic | $1.50–$3.00 | –71% to –42% |
| Normalized | 1:00 p.m.–9:00 p.m. | +35% to +74% |
| Optimistic | $12.00–$20.00 | +132% to +287% |
The target prices are based on the estimated combined NPV of ~23,600 M USD, the projected timeline for permits and production (Q4 2027), and the price trends of critical metals (Ni, Co, Cu, Mn). The optimistic scenario assumes accelerated approval by NOAA; the base case assumes progress in line with current guidance; and the pessimistic scenario incorporates prolonged delays, further dilutions, and/or a severe correction in metal prices.
The company
TMC the metals company Inc. is a company that deepwater mineral exploration which is focused on the collection, processing and refining of polymetallic nodules from the seafloor in the Clarion-Clipperton Zone (CCZ) in the Pacific Ocean. Its goal is to extract critical metals—nickel, cobalt, copper, and manganese—that are essential for electric vehicle batteries, renewable energy, and defense supply chains.
In simple terms: TMC collects rocks from the ocean floor containing valuable metals, brings them to the surface using underwater robots, and then extracts those metals at onshore plants. Its approach involves obtaining these materials in a way that is potentially more sustainable than traditional mining, avoiding deforestation, the displacement of communities, or water pollution.
Founded in 2011 Headquartered in New York, TMC operates in a advanced development phase, after publishing its Pre-Feasibility Study and Initial Assessment Report in 2025. Its first commercial production cycle is scheduled for Q4 2027, with an estimated annual capacity of 10.8 million metric tons of wet nodules and a Combined NPV of ~23,600 M USD.
Fundamental analysis
| Metrics | TMC | Comparison | Comment |
|---|---|---|---|
| Market Capitalization | ~$2.030M | Pairs $107.7M · Sector $476.2M | Reserve Bonus at the CCZ |
| PER | –16,0x | Pairs –0.8x · Sector 0.6x | Net loss of $184.5M in Q3 2025 |
| PEG | 0,53 | — | Undervalued relative to projected growth (CAGR > 76% post-2027) |
| P/B | 25,7x | 0.7x pairs | Driven primarily by NORI-D reserves |
| EBITDA | –$76.0M | — | Gross Margin 0% (pre-revenue stage) |
| ROA / ROE / ROCE | –112% / –792% / –321% | Pairs: negative · Positive sector | Preoperative stage, no structural deterioration |
| Cash | $165M | — | Runway 18–24 months |
| Total debt | $2.48M | 25,971 active TP3T pairs | Minimal debt (1.41 TP3T in assets) · low leverage |
| Beta | 1,82 | — | High systemic sensitivity |
| Short float | 17,46% | Short ratio 2.45 | Pause in the upward trend since October |
As an early-stage development company, TMC incurs significant operating losses due to investments in robotics technology and permits, along with high volatility in its valuation. Its market capitalization of ~2,030 M USD positions it as a mid-cap company within the metals sector, well above the average for its peers (107.7 M USD). The PEG of 0.53 suggests that the stock is undervalued relative to projected growth, while the P/E ratio of 25.7x (driven primarily by NORI-D reserves) far exceeds the 0.7x ratio of its peers.
Its balance sheet shows some strength: 165 M USD in cash y minimum debt (2.48 million USD, 1.41% of total assets), providing a runway of 18–24 months without immediate dilutions. The negative profitability ratios (ROA –112.2%, ROE –791.9%, ROCE –321.3%) are typical of pre-revenue exploration companies and reflect the investment phase, not structural deterioration. The short float of 17,46% (short ratio of 2.45 days) has stabilized since October, suggesting that catalysts such as progress with the NOAA could trigger accelerated short covering and forced upward movements (gamma squeeze).
Identified catalysts
On October 30, 2025, NOAA sent the White House a proposed rule that would combine exploration and recovery permits into a single process, accelerating TMC’s path to a commercial license—TMC is currently the only company in the world positioned to produce at scale by 2027. Approval would significantly reduce the risks associated with the business model, facilitating financing and off-take agreements. There is speculation about the appointment of a NOAA administrator who is strategically aligned with the Trump administration, which could expedite the decision.
TMC plans to begin production in Q4 2027, subject to approval of the recovery permit. With 51 million tons of proven reserves and a combined NPV of 23,600 M USD (5,500 M USD for NORI-D alone), the project's economic viability has been validated. The estimated annual capacity is 10.8 Mt/year of wet nodules.
In the first quarter of 2027, TMC will carry out underwater mining tests in collaboration with a Japanese university, using the vessel «Hidden Gem» in collaboration with Allseas. These tests could generate initial revenue and serve as a prelude to large-scale commercial extraction.
The four metals found in TMC nodules (manganese, nickel, cobalt, and copper) are included in the U.S. Critical Minerals List. The strengthening of the U.S.-Japan partnership in seabed mineral processing is seen as a positive sign for the sector, driving demand for sustainable alternatives to land-based mining.
With a short float of 17,46%, a put/call open interest ratio of 0.30 and a strong concentration of open interest in out-of-the-money calls (strikes of 8–10 USD), an unexpected positive catalyst (positive news from NOAA) could trigger accelerated covering, forcing market makers to buy the underlying asset to cover the delta of the sold calls and amplifying the upward movement. Tactical possibility, not a base case.
With 165 million USD in cash and potential inflows of more than 400 million USD in warrants, the market is speculating about an extended operational runway. The decisive factor remains obtaining regulatory approval: if it is delayed, the risk of share dilution increases significantly.
Revaluation Scenarios
Interactive tool
Enable or disable the catalysts to calculate the target price range and implied return in real time. TMC's thesis is binary at its core: regulatory approval defines the dominant scenario.
Technical Analysis
Source: TMC the metals company Inc. ($TMC) 1D Chart · TradingView · Created by Diego García del Río · November 2025
TMC is located in downward trend following a bullish rally that took it from ~$4.40 to its All-time high of $11.35 in October. The technical chart shows clear signs of weakness: the price broke through the 50-day EMA (~$6.60) and the 200-day EMA (~$5.05), turning both levels into resistance and confirming a trend reversal. The price remains slightly below the 200-period EMA, indicating weakness but also the possibility of a technical rebound if the price stabilizes in the current range.
The RSI (14) at 30.15 is located at extreme overbought zone, levels from which similar high-beta assets have rebounded. However, the downward slope suggests that selling pressure could continue. The MACD remains in a confirmed bearish crossover, with a continuous negative histogram, although the slowdown could signal that the decline is nearing an end if accumulation occurs at current volume levels. Support levels: 4.37 USD (August low), with a break that would pave the way for the 52-week low of $0.72. Resistance levels: 6.60 USD (50-day EMA), then 7.05 USD. A sustained recovery above the 50-day EMA with high volume would signal a resumption of the uptrend.
Analysis of Options
Based on data from the November 14, 2025, the TMC options market shows a clear upward bias: 318,533 call contracts versus 96,190 put contractswith a Put/Call open interest ratio of 0.30 (77% from the OI, skewed toward calls). The expiration with the highest concentration is the 01/16/26 (63 DTE), where the OI amounts to 115,301 calls versus 31,035 puts (Put/Call open interest ratio of 0.27).
Blue: bullish OTM calls · Green: ATM strike · Amber: support zone. The accumulation at the 8-9-10 USD strikes implicitly prices in an attempt at a technical rebound toward 6-8 USD.
| Expiration | DTE | Implicit movement | Estimated range |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21/11/25 | 7 | ±15,60% | $4.16 – $5.70 |
| 28/11/25 | 14 | ±19,80% | $3.95 – $5.91 |
| 16/01/26 | 63 | ±42,70% | $2.82 – $7.04 |
| 21/01/28 | 798 | ±168,70% | $0.00 – $13.25 |
Interactive tool
Enter the current price, implied volatility (IV), and days to expiration (DTE) to calculate the expected move at 1 standard deviation. This replicates the methodology used by market makers to estimate the likely price range through expiration.
Synthesis
TMC is a company A mid-cap company focused on critical metals for the energy transition, with a model based on the extraction of nickel, cobalt, copper, and manganese from polymetallic nodules in the deep waters of the CCZ. It is in pre-commercial phase: no revenue, significant losses, backed by a Combined NPV of ~23,600 M USD and a production plan for Q4 2027. Its balance sheet shows strong liquidity (~165 M USD) and very low leverage (debt of ~1.41 times total assets), providing 18–24 months of runway.
From a valuation perspective, TMC trades at multiples based primarily on expectations (P/E ratio –16.0x, P/B ratio 25.7x), with a consensus target price around 7-8 USD and a market capitalization of nearly 2,200 M USD. Its option chain This reinforces the view that this is a speculative trade with high risk and high reward: 77% in open interest (put/call OI ratio ~0.30), strong concentration in the 01/16/26 expiration and OTM strikes (8–9–10 USD), with expected moves derived from an IV >100% across most expirations.
Like other ideas I've analyzed, TMC is a speculative opportunity, not a defensive one. Its combination of regulatory, operational, and market catalysts could multiply its valuation over the next 1–3 years, while significant delays, environmental regulatory pressure, or poor capital management could lead to severe declines and recurring dilution. The The risk-return asymmetry improves substantially if the company manages to secure permits, carry out the ramp-up by 2027 without depleting its cash reserves, and capture even a fraction of the estimated NPV.
Frequently Asked Questions
TMC collects polymetallic nodules from the seafloor in the Clarion-Clipperton Zone (Pacific Ocean) to extract critical metals: nickel, cobalt, copper, and manganese. It is speculative because it is in the pre-commercial phase (no revenue, operating at a loss), and its business case depends primarily on NOAA’s approval of the regulatory permit to begin commercial production in Q4 2027.
In 2025, TMC reported an estimated combined Net Present Value (NPV) of ~23,600 M USD, including 5,500 M USD from the NORI-D area alone. NPV is an estimate of the present value of the project’s future cash flows, discounted at a specified rate. It is not the current market value, but rather the project’s economic potential if it is executed as planned.
The expected move is the expected range of movement for a stock up to a given expiration date, derived from the implied volatility of the options. For the 01/16/26 expiration (63 DTE), TMC’s expected move is ~42.70%, projecting a range between $7.04 and $2.82 from the reference price of $5.17. This reflects market uncertainty regarding pending regulatory developments.
Starting at 5.17 USD: Pessimistic scenario 1.50–3.00 USD (-71% to -42%) due to permit delays and dilution; base case: $7.00–$9.00 (+35% to +74%) with regulatory approval in H1 2026 and production start in Q4 2027; and optimistic $12.00–$20.00 (+1,32% to +2,87%) with accelerated NOAA approval, production before 2027, and strategic offtake agreements.
Markets by Diego is the financial analysis platform of Diego García del Río, a Spanish economist and independent private investor, and founder of Hill Valley Consulting. He publishes asset analyses, macroeconomic reports, and strategies involving options and leveraged ETFs, along with tracking of actual trades in international markets.
More analysis by Diego García del Río
Spanish 
English 
German 
French