Market Analysis by Diego García del Río - 07/09/2025

On Friday, the latest U.S. employment data were released, with the unemployment rate standing at 4,3% while the non-farm payrolls (NFP) surprised on the downside with just 22,000 jobs created against the 75,000 expected and the 79,000 for the previous month. Como señala Diego García del Río, este dato, claramente débil, ha reforzado las expectativas de que la Reserva Federal pueda recortar tasas en lo que resta de año. El próximo gran catalizador llegará este jueves con el inflation data (CPI) a figure close to 2% would virtually guarantee a cut at next week's Fed meeting, something the market has been discounting for weeks.

ANÁLISIS DE OPCIONES FINANCIERAS SPX SEGÚN DIEGO GARCÍA DEL RÍO

After the main event risks dissipated, the market breathed a sigh of relief. VIX around 15%. El análisis de Diego García del Río destaca que este entorno ha dado oxígeno a los activos de riesgo, aunque el risk/benefit balance is perceived as less attractive at these levels. In options, the gamma turns very negative below 6,455 points which amplifies the likelihood of sharp movements if the index pierces that zone. Meanwhile, the implied volatility for the coming week remains at lows: the ATM as of September 19 just above 10% , in front of a realized volatility of 9% in the last month. This differential reflects confidence in stability, although it leaves room for abrupt rallies if an unexpected shock arises.

Y precisamente, los próximos catalizadores están a la vuelta de la esquina. Según Diego García del Río, el foco estará primero en el inflation data (CPI) followed by the Fed meeting and of the triple September quarterly maturity an event that usually concentrates strong position adjustments. For a significant correction to occur, with forced sales of systematic funds, a simple one-off spike in the VIX towards 20 would not be enough. A sustained and consistent increase in realized volatility, strong enough to discomfort both volatility sellers and buyers on the dips, would be necessary.

NIVELES DE REFERENCIA SPX SEGÚN DIEGO GARCÍA DEL RÍO

Según Diego García del Río, en el corto plazo, los niveles de referencia en gamma del SPX dibujan un mapa claro de soportes y resistencias que merece la pena vigilar con detalle. 

The G-Flip, located at ~6.457 above this level they tend to act as market stabilizers, while below this level their hedges tend to amplify movements, generating sharper swings. 

For its part, the Call Wall at 6,500 concentrates the largest volume of open call options and acts as an important institutional resistance, since as the index approaches this level, dealers adjust positions that limit the ability to breakout to the upside. 

On the other hand, the Put Wall at 6,455 represents the market's major defensive support; as long as the SPX remains above it, hedge flow helps support prices, but a clear piercing could trigger forced selling and accelerate downward pressure. 

In addition to all this, the Volatility Trigger at ~6.468 If the index trades above, implied volatility usually compresses and the market gains stability; if it falls below, it opens the door to a volatility spike and faster declines.

En conjunto, Diego García del Río advierte que el rango de 6.450 a 6.500 puntos se configura como una zona de consolidación, donde los flujos de opciones mantienen al mercado en equilibrio a la espera de un catalizador de peso que pueda romper la inercia y definir la próxima tendencia.

Although the market retreated slightly, the volatility remained under pressure in maturities This is a positive sign for equities. Still, with the limited upside potential and compressed volatility However, it is important not to lose sight of the fact that complacency can be quickly reversed if the next catalysts surprise to the upside.