Biopharma Operations: results of one of my strategies

Aurinia focuses on therapies for autoimmune diseases. It is interesting because it is consolidating its position in 2025, driven by the performance of LUPKYNIS® (voclosporin), the first oral treatment approved by the FDA for active lupus nephritis. The company reported Total revenue of approximately $205.9 million (+171% YoY in Q3), with net sales of LUPKYNIS of ~197.2 M USD (+24%). The company raised its 2025 guidance to 275–280 M USD, supported by sustained demand, operational improvements, and progress in the pipeline (including upcoming studies of aritinercept – AUR200).

We started with options on the asset and subsequently migrated to equities, obtaining a return of +112,771 TP3T in approximately 370 days, the longest-running trade of all. This transition from derivatives to equities allowed us to capture greater initial convexity and, subsequently, consolidate the position with a more stable risk profile—also given the situation at the time, with delays in the release of material information—while seeking to maximize returns without increasing nominal exposure.

Sana focuses on modified cell therapies for serious diseases, and made progress in 2025 by prioritizing key programs within its platform hypoimmune (HIP). The company ended the quarter with 153.1 million USD in cash, and a pro forma balance of 170.5 M USD following the latest ATM transactions, extending its runway through the end of 2026. SANA raised 115.8 M USD gross during the quarter via ATM and equity, offsetting operating cash burn of 111.2 M USD. GAAP net losses narrowed to 42.2 M USD (0.16 USD per share), a 30% year-over-year decrease.

Unlike AUPH, in this operation we work exclusively with equities, obtaining a yield of +109,17% in 267 days. The purely equity-based structure allowed us to gain linear exposure to the asset’s price movements, optimizing our capture of the upward momentum without adding derivative complexity. Our management approach is based on price discipline, risk control, and continuous validation of catalysts, which allowed us to maximize returns over what we consider a long-term horizon.

Syndax is a biotechnology company focused on oncology and advanced immunology, with two FDA-approved drugs: Revuforj® (revumenib) for AML with KMT2A rearrangement and Niktimvo™ (axatilimab) for cGVHD following multiple lines of treatment. Both products form the core of the company's business, while its pipeline is expanding into indications such as the mNPM1 mutation, pulmonary fibrosis, and new combinations in oncology.

The central catalyst was the FDA priority review (PDUFA 10/25/2025) to expand Revuforj to patients with the mNPM1 mutation, who account for 30–35% of AML cases. Approval would increase its target market by a factor of 3–4. The company already held accelerated designations (RTOR, Breakthrough), which increased the likelihood of regulatory success. At the same time, Niktimvo is generating initial commercial revenue, bolstered by a $350 million agreement with Royalty Pharma, which improves liquidity and reduces the need for dilution. SNDX ended Q1 2025 with approximately $602 million in cash, sufficient for approximately 21 months of operating runway.

In terms of valuation, SNDX was trading at ~0.08–0.10x projected cumulative revenue over 10 years (approximately 7,590 M USD from Revuforj alone), well below the 0.26x–0.78x range observed in comparable M&A transactions. In scenarios involving full expansion of the pipeline, the addressable market would reach $12,000–16,000 M USD, with theoretical valuations ranging from $15,000 M to $80,000 M USD based on standard biotech multiples.

At Over 45 days, we achieved a return of +52.74%; several days before the binary catalyst, we opted for a early departure, given that the upside achieved in such a short period was already considerable, and we preferred to reduce our exposure ahead of the binary event, prioritizing capital preservation and favorable asymmetry. As the saying goes: «A bird in the hand is worth more than a hundred in the air.».

Crinetics is a biotechnology company focused on oral therapies for rare endocrinology, with paltusotine as the main catalyst: its PDUFA date of September 25, 2025, along with a pipeline that includes atumelnant and CRN12755. It maintained a solid financial position (~$1.2 billion in cash), high institutional ownership, and target prices pointing to significant upside potential. You can check out the analysis presented here.

On September 25, 2025, the FDA approved paltusotine, and the price movement in CRNX confirmed exactly the scenario I had anticipated. The structure of the options market—with IV at the 99th percentile, a put/call open interest ratio of 0.07, and clearly directional flow toward calls—pointed to an interesting catalyst.

The operation involved entering the Call 40 OCT-25 on September 24 at 1.30 USD and departure on Friday after approval to $4.30, with a yield of +230,771 TP3T in just a few days (The premium reached an intraday high of 7.10 USD, +446%). The stock rose more than 25%, but the convexity of the derivative allowed the initial capital to be multiplied by more than 3.3 times. You can elaborate further on the performance of the trade here.

Zevra, again, is a biotech company focused on rare diseases, with MIPLYFFA as its main commercial driver and a pipeline that includes arimoclomol and programs focused on sleep disorders. The company combined rapidly growing revenue, strengthened liquidity following the sale of its PRV, and a runway extending through 2028. The key short-term catalyst was the progress of KP1077 in narcolepsy and hypersomnia, with results and clinical phases expected in H2 2025. Here You can view the full analysis.

This time, we decided on a immediate departure following an initial move, prioritizing risk management and avoiding unnecessary exposure in a still-volatile environment. We closed the position with a +10,281 TP3T in just 1 day, The market is a very short period of time, ensuring an acceptable return without waiting for the catalyst in the background. This type of quick execution is part of my approach when the market offers a clear return in such a short period.

Achieve is a biotechnology company focused on cytisinicline, its lead product for smoking cessation, which is currently in an advanced stage of clinical review and has a PDUFA date scheduled for June 2026. The company is operating without revenue, with significant losses but a strong cash position that extends its runway through 2027. The key catalyst is the regulatory approval of cytisinicline in a global market of more than 5,200 M USD. This company has one of the largest potential markets of all those mentioned; you can develop the analysis I did here.

With a yield of +44.30% in just 24 days, we closed the position without waiting for the main catalyst. Once again, we chose to lock in our returns, free up liquidity, and limit further exposure, while maintaining the disciplined approach I always apply in trades of this type.

Gain, again, is a clinical-stage biotech focused on precision therapies for neurodegenerative diseases, with GT-02287 as a major asset at Parkinson-GBA and a proprietary computational platform (Magellan™.) that identifies «hidden» allosteric sites in proteins. The company operates without revenue, with limited liquidity—though sufficient to cover near-term catalysts—and offers high speculative potential given its Phase 1b data and the potential transition to Phase 2 in 2026. Here You can view the full analysis.

In only 2 days our position reached +27,66%, We decided to close without prolonging risk, prioritizing short-term profit over momentum. We opted to close without prolonging risk, prioritizing short-term profit for momentum.

Last but not least, Gossamer is a biopharmaceutical company in the advanced clinical stage focused on rare lung diseases, with seralutinib as the lead compound in two Phase 3 studies (PROSERA for PAH and SERANATA for PH-ILD). The company combines a differentiated pipeline based on inhaled therapies and a high-risk profile typical of the sector, with key catalysts between 2025 and 2026 that could potentially redefine its current valuation. You have here the full analysis.

In the short term, since it's only 10 days, we closed the position with a yield of +28,74%, ensuring the expected movement without waiting for the main catalysts. Once again, we chose to capitalize on the early momentum it provided and limit additional risk, avoiding situations of high volatility that could lead to a significant loss.