ANALYSIS AND OPINION BY DIEGO GARCÍA DEL RÍO: $BOLL AND $CIRSA - 06/01/2026

TABLE OF CONTENTS
Disclaimer: The content herein is for informational purposes only and may contain estimates or personal opinions. In no case should it be considered financial advice, investment recommendation or personalized advice. The material is intended for the general public and does not take into account the personal, financial or property circumstances of any individual. Consequently, I assume no responsibility whatsoever for the use made of the information contained herein or for any decisions or consequences that may arise therefrom. Trading in financial products, especially equities, involves significant risks, including the possible total loss of the invested capital. It is recommended that you ensure that you fully understand these risks and, if necessary, seek qualified professional advice or appropriate training.

About listed European companies with strategic optionality and clear corporate catalysts, I find two names with very different but complementary profiles particularly interesting: Bolloré ($BOLL) y Cirsa Enterprises ($CIRSA).

Bolloré represents a thesis of strategic and patrimonial value, The company has a strong balance sheet, low systemic volatility and long-term industrial and financial assets, with relevant optionality in sustainable energy, electric mobility and media. Its revaluation potential is less dependent on the immediate economic cycle and more on capital allocation events, The company's financial position, the unlocking of value in key assets and the progressive normalization of exogenous factors that are currently limiting the holding's rating.

For its part, Cirsa Enterprises fits into a disciplined structural growth thesis, focused on the expansion of regulated and digital gaming in Europe and Latin America. After its IPO in 2025, The market focus is on operational execution, integration of selective acquisitions and balance sheet optimization, in a sector with strong cash generation but high regulatory sensitivity. In contrast to Bolloré, Cirsa offers a more defensive growth, with higher operating leverage and appreciation potential linked to organic and inorganic growth.

The following analysis provides an overview of the complete evaluation of fundamentals, revaluation catalysts, price scenarios y multitemporal technical analysis for both securities, with a focus on investors who are looking for risk/return asymmetry, either from the point of view of net asset value with strategic optionality (BOLL) or from a regulated growth story and cash generation (CIRSA).

Before entering into the detailed analysis, I leave a summary table with current prices and estimated valuation ranges, calculated on the basis of execution scenarios, financial structure, corporate catalysts and potential rerating multiples:

TICKERCURRENT PRICETARGET PRICEUPSIDE
BOLL4,85 EUR7,00-9,00 EUR+44% to +86%
CIRSA14,70 EUR18,00-25,00 EUR+22% to +70%

*Target prices are based on reasoned scenarios of strategic execution, operational growth and normalization of exogenous risks. In both cases, the materialization of the upside is conditional on the regulatory environment, financial discipline and the timing of identified catalysts.

Bollore ($BOLL)

Bolloré (BOLL) is a French multinational conglomerate that operates in the logistics and transportation sectors, distribution of petroleum products, electricity storage y communications, focused on providing innovative services linked to the sustainable mobility, the global supply chain and the media entertainment. In simple terms, its activity is based on manage international logistics operations, to distribute fuels and petroleum derivatives, to develop batteries and electrical storage solutions, and maintain controlling interests in media groups as Vivendi for the production and distribution of audiovisual content.

Founded in 1822 and headquartered in Puteaux (France), the company is in the midst of a strategic consolidation phase after recent divestments. In the first half of 2025 registered approximate revenues of EUR 1,547 Mwith moderate growth projections supported by the expansion of its sustainable energy and its international diversification, with presence in more than 100 countries.

$BOLL: Valuation, Balance Sheet and Key Holding Company Fundamentals

Taking into account its conglomerate profile, its strategic consolidation phase and the diversified nature of its business, Bolloré currently presents a peculiar fundamental profile, mainly characterized by high asset solidity and a exposure to structural growth, although it has operational inefficiencies and a almost heterogeneous performance dynamics The company's financial strength is the result of recent divestitures and a certain complexity in its corporate structure. With a market capitalization of ~13,630 M EUR, 1,265m) and well above the sector average, reflecting its status as a diversified holding company with strategic assets in logistics, energy and media. Even so, this scale does not translate homogeneously into operating profitability, as shown primarily by the volatility of its operating metrics.

From the point of view of valuation, Bolloré trades at a P/E ratio of 29.7x, This is significantly higher than that of its peers and the sector (both around 6.1x), suggesting that the market is discounting future earnings normalization or implicitly valuing the quality of its underlying assets more than its current earnings generation capacity. This reading is reinforced by a Negative PEG (-0.21), The company's growth is expected to be limited or even declining in the short term. However, the price/book value of 0.5x points to a clear accounting understatement, This determines that the market applies a relevant discount on the value of the assets, probably due to the complexity of the holding company and the low visibility of recurring profits. Going into consensus terms, analysts estimate a upside potential of ~31%, The company's growth strategy is in line with the sector, which is optimistic, subject to an orderly execution of its basic strategy.

About your growth, Bolloré shows a clearly asymmetrical evolution. The one-time spikes in revenues above 200-300% contrast with a Five-year income CAGR negative (-33.9%), This behavior suggests that recent growth reflects a changing perimeter following divestitures and strategic reorganizations. This behavior suggests that recent growth is more in response to extraordinary effects or asset restructuring than to a sustained organic trend. Looking ahead, the revenue growth forecasts (~2.2%) the sector, which points to a phase of stabilization rather than accelerated expansion, consistent with its current defensive positioning.

In terms of profitability, the company has a net margin of 14.3% This profitability is higher than that of its peers and the sector, which indicates the capacity to generate profit at an aggregate level. Even so, this profitability coexists with negative ROIC (-0.6%) and ROA (-4.0%), evidencing a low efficiency in the allocation of present capital, especially relevant in an asset-intensive group. The Positive ROE (1.7%), The company's financial structure, although modest, suggests that shareholder returns are supported more by financial structure and non-operating results than by pure operating strength. The total shareholder return (64.6%) outperformed peers and the sector, supported by stable dividends, although the price performance (-16.1%) reflects market caution in the absence of clear catalysts.

From the perspective of balance, Bolloré shows a strong financial position. It has total assets close to EUR 27,000 M and a very low debt (~284 M EUR), the group maintains a low leverage, This significantly reduces financial risk and provides strategic flexibility. Even so, the negative operating income (-272.9 M EUR) shows that a significant portion of net income comes from non-recurring or non-operating items, which requires close monitoring of the quality of results. Its beta of 0.60 confirms a profile of low systemic volatility, attractive for defensive investors or portfolios oriented to capital preservation.

Right now and in its fundamental profile, Bolloré represents an investment with a conservative-strategic profile., more oriented to net worth and financial stability than accelerated growth. Its asset strength, low indebtedness and international diversification contrasts with a limited operating profitability and a demanding valuation in multiples of earnings, which means that the attractiveness of the security depends to a large extent on corporate catalysts, The value can fit in defensive or long-term portfolios, with a focus on balance sheet and strategic optionality, although it requires patience and tolerance for gradual rather than immediate value generation. Value can fit in defensive or long-term portfolios, with a focus on balance sheet and strategic optionality, although it requires patience and tolerance for gradual rather than immediate value generation.

COMPANY LOGO 5 e1767723179145 e1767723179145
Source: Bollore (BOLL) Logo | Google

$BOLL: Key Catalysts, Exogenous Risk (Vivendi IPO) and Rerating Potential

Bolloré SE (BOLL), as diversified holding company with exposure to power/electrical storage (Blue Solutions/Bluebus) and media holdings, concentrates a significant portion of its stock optionality on very specific corporate catalysts. In the short and medium term, the “rerating” narrative depends less on a simple earnings cycle and more on capital allocation eventsIndustrial execution, financing structure and capital discipline (buybacks/cancellations).

Blue Solutions' Gigafactory in Mulhouse (Alsace):

The catalyst with the greatest potential for impact is the project announced by Blue Solutions (a subsidiary of the group) to deploy a all-solid-state battery gigafactory“ in Mulhouse, with production forecast for 2030, a goal of ~1,500 jobs by 2032 and a reported aggregate investment of >2,200 M EUR up to 2030.

At the market level, this type of project usually moves valuation in two ways:

  • Technological optionality (solid state battery) and European strategic narrative of reindustrialization.
  • Financing structureThe “how it is paid for” matters as much as “what is built”.

At this point, it is reasonable to interpret that Bolloré will attempt to mitigate risk and capital consumption through external financing and/or industrial agreements (anchor customers, pre-purchases, JV, co-investment), especially in a highly competitive segment with execution risks (CAPEX, ramp-up, cost/kWh, reliability, approvals). Reuters, covering the announcement, highlighted the location close to French and German manufacturers and the 2030 timeframe, elements that tend to facilitate industrial talks.

Repurchase and cancellation program:

A more “tactical”, but still relevant, catalyst is the share repurchase program. In the first half of 2025, Bolloré repurchased 35.4 million shares (≈1,26% of capital) by 196.5 M EUR, and, in addition, we report the cancellation of 44.1 million shares The Board subsequently decided to cancel an additional 3.2 million shares of treasury stock in September 2025.

This type of movement usually acts as:

  • Signal of confidence (at least relative) in the valuation versus the intrinsic value perceived by the issuer.
  • Value creation mechanism per share if sustained over time and executed at attractive levels.

Perimeter repositioning and “Blue” focus:

Following the changes in the scope of consolidation (including the sale of Bolloré Logistics, referred to in the earnings reports), the “equity story” tends to be more concentrated in the activities with structural growth and ESG/industrial narrative. In this context, Bolloré's corporate reports, describe the perimeter Blue as an e-mobility block (Blue Solutions/Bluebus) supported by all-solid-state batteries and a fleet of electric buses in operation, which reinforces the argument of diversification towards mobility and storage.

Legal catalyst - Vincent Bolloré trial pending:

As an extra, the pending legal proceedings involving Vincent Bolloré in connection with the compulsory takeover bid for Vivendi acts as a legal and governance overhang on the action of Bolloré SE (BOLL). This litigation no solvency risk, but it does present a relevant exogenous factor which limits the rerating of multiples, by adding regulatory and corporate control uncertainty which the market discounts in the valuation, especially due to the potential financial impact of a forced takeover bid.

The legal proceedings in connection with the compulsory takeover bid for Vivendi presents one of the most relevant legal catalysts for Bolloré SE (BOLL) in the short and medium term. Mainly driven by minority shareholders such as Bluebell Capital, it questioned whether Bolloré exercised de facto control Vivendi and, therefore, as required by French law, had to launch a takeover bid for 100% of the share capital when it exceeded certain thresholds of influence, despite directly owning a stake in Vivendi. 29,9%.

The November 28, 2025the French Court of Cassation annulled the previous judgment of the Paris Court of Appeals, which in April 2025 had forced Bolloré to launch such a takeover bid. This decision eliminates, at least immediately, the risk of a potential disbursement of several billions of euros, preserving liquidity, avoiding significant dilution and materially reducing the financial risk associated with the case.

From a stock exchange perspective, this cancellation acts as a clear positive catalyst, by removing a binary risk that weighed on the valuation of the holding company and limited the multiples rerating. The elimination of the takeover bid obligation frees up financial capacity to share repurchases, strategic investments and capital-intensive projects, such as the industrial development of Blue Solutions, and reinforces the stability of the company's control structure.

Even so, the case is not completely closed. The Court of Cassation's decision sends the proceedings back to lower instances for review, which implies that the legal uncertainty could last through 2026. A definitive confirmation of absence of de facto control would act as an additional upside catalyst by completely dissipating regulatory risk and facilitating corporate transactions in the media perimeter (spin-offs, alliances or reorganizations within Vivendi/Canal+).

In the opposite scenario, a reversal of the judgment or further legal action by minority shareholders would reintroduce volatility in its value. Although the direct financial impact would still be manageable for its size, the market could once again apply a discount of 10-15% on capitalization, via multiple contraction and higher risk premium.

Revaluation Scenarios

In a upward scenario, assuming a successful implementation of key strategic catalysts and a progressive normalization of the exogenous factors that are currently limiting the stock's rating, the target price of Bolloré (BOLL) would be in the range of approximately 7 to 9 EURwhich implies a upside bullish from +44% to +86% from current levels near ~4,85 EUR. This scenario is supported by the entry of industrial and financial partners for the Blue Solutions gigafactory, structuring the investment through external capital and hybrid financing, together with a revenue growth in excess of 10% per annum, The company's strategy, driven by electric mobility, energy storage and optimization of the group's perimeter. Within this framework, the sales could exceed ~4.5 billion EUR by 2027with operating margins >15%, sustained positive cash flow and continuity in share repurchase programs, justifying a capitalization close to EUR 20,000 M.

In a baseline/standard scenario, aligned with the consensus and an execution without relevant deviations, the target range would lie between 6.0 and 6.5 EUR, which represents a revaluation potential from +24% to +34%. This scenario envisages a gradual progression of the Blue Solutions industrial project with mixed financing (public subsidies, private co-investment and structured debt), moderate organic growth of the Group and the persistence of certain exogenous uncertainty factors, already incorporated in the current multiples. The sales would reach ~3,500-4,000 M EUR by 2026with 10-12% margins and a financial runway longer than 24 months. Operational consolidation in more than 100 countries and the maintenance of buybacks would reinforce its defensive profile, projecting a capitalization in the range of EUR 15-17 billion. Even so, in a bearish scenario, conditioned by delays in raising external financing, regulatory hurdles or deviations in capital-intensive projects, as well as by the prolongation of exogenous factors that continue to penalize valuation, the stock could be trading in the range of 3 to 4 EUR, which represents a downside risk of up to -38%. This scenario would involve limited sales below EUR 2,500 M per year, margins <8%, increased reliance on divestitures to cover cash burn, and a additional shrinkage of multiples, reducing the capitalization to a range of approximately EUR 8-10 billion..

$BOLL: Technical Analysis - Weekly Structure, Daily Breakout and Momentum Confirmation

The weekly technical structure from Bolloré (BOLL) shows a persistent corrective phase from the highs of April 2024, characterized by a clear sequence of decreasing maxima and minima, which confirms a structural weakness current. Even so, the price action has reached a critical technical convergence, since the asset is reacting on a key structural support zone. This level coincides with a historical accumulation area the last upward momentum, suggesting the possibility of an upward potential soil able to curb the selling pressure and catalyze a change in trend.

As for the momentum indicatorsthe RSI (14) is located in 43,76, In this regard, a relevant reading is that, far from pointing to extreme overbooking, reflects a orderly and controlled downtrend. The oscillator remains in negative territory, but maintains room for a constructive turnaround if the support is able to consolidate.

On the other hand, the MACD begins to offer incipient signs of positive divergencewith a upward crossover between the fast line and the signal. Technically, this points to a deceleration of the bearish momentum and to a possible validation of current support. Even so, caution is necessary, When this crossing occurred in negative territory, the signal should be interpreted, for the time being, as a technical rebound or reversion to the mean. To confirm a MARKET GROUND and a structural change in trend, will be key that the indicator recover the neutral (zero) line in the coming sessions.

image e1767723460679
Source: Bollore ($BOLL) TF 1W | TradingView

If we go to the daily chart, the stage changes significantly. The price action shows a break of the daily downward trend line, and also accompanied by the overcoming previous lows, which suggests that we could be dealing with a change of trend in the short/medium term. After the breakout, the price has made a technical pull back, The company's own 50-session EMA as in the old downtrend line, setting up a potential technical rebound point.

As for the RSI, appears in the first clear sign of bullish validation, at 54,64, breaking above its moving average (50.78) and, more importantly, recovering the neutral zone of 50. This movement indicates that the asset has left the previous bearish regime and has entered into a purchasing control zone, with room to move higher before reaching overbought levels.

The MACD confirms the strength of momentum. There is a histogram expansion into positive territory, reflecting a acceleration of bullish momentum. The lines of the indicator maintain a constructive configuration: the MACD line (0.0237) is located above the signal line (-0.0013) and is attacking the zero line. A sustained crossover into positive territory would be a robust technical signal, validating the passage of technical rebound a structural recovery.Finally, the volume supports the technical reading. The rebound from the support zone has been produced with a clear increase in participation, with a volume of close to 2.7 million shares, This was higher than the average of the previous consolidation sessions. This convergence between price and volume suggests that the movement is not merely speculative, but rather that there is a actual accumulation defending the support, which lends credibility to the rupture of the short term downward trend line at Bolloré.

image 1 e1767723479564
Source: Bollore ($BOLL) TF 1D | TradingView

Cirsa Enterprises ($CIRSA)

Cirsa Enterprises (CIRSA) is a Spanish multinational company in the gaming and leisure sector, which operates casinos, slot machines, bingo halls, gambling centers and online gaming platforms, focused on offering entertainment experiences regulated in Europe and Latin America. In simple terms, its activity consists of manage face-to-face and digital gaming operations, developing and operating physical establishments and online gaming and wagering services in regulated markets.

Founded in 1978 and headquartered in Terrassa (Catalonia, Spain), the company is in the midst of a expansion phase, driven by the growth of the online business and strategic acquisitions. In the first nine months of 2025, the company recorded revenues of approximately 1,717 M EUR, with projections close to 2,750 M EUR for the whole year, supported by an increased adoption of digital services and an operational presence in more than 70 countries.

$CIRSA: Valuation, Leverage and Key Post-IPO Fundamentals

Cirsa Enterprises (CIRSA) The fundamental profile of the company is characterized by a structural growth with strong operating leverage, although accompanied by risks mainly associated with its high financial leverage and a very demanding valuation. It has a approximate market capitalization of EUR 2,469 M, Cirsa is below the average size of its peers (~4,128 M EUR), but well above its sector average, reflecting its position as a relevant operator within the European/Latin American gaming ecosystem. This scale responds to its progressive transition towards digital and omni-channel models, although the share price performance has been more contained, with a total price yield close to -2%, This indicates that part of the growth is already partially discounted by the market.

From the point of view of volatility and risk profile, The company, due to its recent IPO, does not have a public beta, thus limiting direct comparative analysis, but the proximity of the IPO price to the 85.8% from its 52-week high suggests a market that recognizes the stability of the model, although with revaluation margin conditional upon performance. This positioning indicates a greater attractiveness for investors with a defensive growth, rather than purely cyclical.

About your valuation Cirsa currently trades at a P/E ratio of 60.0x, clearly higher than that of its peers (10.4x) and the sector (11.1x), which shows that the market assigns a significant premium to its future growth capacity, especially linked to online gaming and expansion into regulated markets. This high multiple contrasts with a price/sales of 1.1x, The company's earnings growth, slightly below the peer average (1.4x) and in line with the sector (1.0x), suggests that, although current earnings are expensive, revenues are still relatively prudently valued. The price/book value of 9.8x shows a high proportion of intangible assets, licenses, concessions and digital platforms, which are common in the industry, but which increase the sensitivity of the valuation to regulatory changes or growth slowdowns.

With respect to its implicit potential, the analysts' consensus estimates a upside close to 35.5%, The main optimism is supported by an increase in fair value of 26.1%, clearly higher than that of peers and the sector. This major optimism is supported by the expansion of its online channel, The company will continue to improve operating efficiency and grow in Latin American markets, although this is conditional on the company's ability to sustain current margins in a very demanding regulatory environment.

From the perspective of growth, Cirsa's performance has been solid but not free of volatility. The recent revenue growth of 39.4% year-over-year far exceeds that of its peers (11.0%) and the sector (3.6%), reflecting a robust recovery in face-to-face leisure and an acceleration in the digital business. On a historical basis, the Five-year revenue CAGR of 8.0% confirms a consistent track record, ahead of peers and sector. Looking ahead, the company's revenue growth forecast (~7.7%) remain attractive and clearly above their sector average, reinforcing the thesis of sustained expansion, especially if the weight of the online channel continues to increase.

Entering in profitability, the company determines reasonable metrics for a capital- and regulatory-intensive business, with a net margin of 1.8%, The company's performance is slightly above that of its peers, reflecting efficient operational management within the sector's limits. Its ROIC of 11.0% and ROE of 32.7%, both well above the comparable averages, indicating an increase in the effective use of capital, The company's operations are supported by leverage and operating cash flow generation. However, the negative average return on equity (-7.4%) evidence that this efficiency has not been homogeneous over time, probably due to regulatory cycles and intensive investment phases.

From the financial point of view, Cirsa generates revenues close to EUR 2,302 Mwith a 375.3 M EUR solid operating result, This demonstrates the company's operational generation capacity. Even so, it has a total debt of ~2,490 M EUR, This adds a considerable level of leverage, although lower than that of its peers, which partially mitigates financial risk. The absence of complete data on total assets and beta certainly limits the analysis of structural solvency and systemic volatility, so monitoring the balance sheet and the evolution of indebtedness is key.

company logo 4 1 e1767723205370
Source: Cirsa Enterprises (CIRSA) Logo | Google

$CIRSA: Key Catalysts, Disciplined M&A and Digital Expansion

Cirsa Enterprises S.A. (CIRSA) as a multinational operator in the gambling and regulated leisure, with relevant presence in casinos, online gambling and gaming machines, concentrates its stock market potential in catalysts linked to the geographic expansionthe execution of selective acquisitions and the optimizing the balance sheet after IPO. Since the July 2025 IPO, the revaluation thesis is based on the combination of organic growth, Disciplined M&A y cash generation, in an environment of post-pandemic normalization and structural acceleration of the digital channel.

IPO and financial normalization:

The main recent catalyst has been the IPO on July 9, 2025, with a placement price of 15 EUR per share and a initial valuation close to EUR 2,520 M, This is one of the largest IPOs in the gaming sector in Europe in recent years. The transaction raised ~400-460 M EUR, mainly intended for debt reduction and financing growth, This tangibly improves the group's financial profile. From a market point of view, the IPO acts as a:Ç

  • Sign of operational maturity and visibility, with projections of EBITDA ~740-750 M EUR in 2025 (+~11% year-on-year).
  • Catalyst for liquidity and access to capital, facilitating the entrance of institutional investors and a potential rerating if financial discipline and consistent execution are confirmed.

M&A strategy and international expansion:

A key catalyst in the medium term is the bolt-on procurement execution, with an estimated budget of ~200-250 M EUR by 2025-2026, focused on regulated markets in Europe and Latin America. Recent operations, such as the entry into flagship assets and the expansion in countries such as Peru, have contributed to an increase of EBITDA growth of ~9% in Q1 2025 and to growth rates higher than 5% constant perimeter in subsequent quarters. This strategy works as follows:

  • Inorganic growth engine, expanding scale in more than 10 key markets (Spain, Italy, Mexico, LatAm).
  • Margin improvement lever, The integration is executed efficiently and operational synergies are captured, especially in the online business.

Organic growth and digitalization:

Following the IPO, CIRSA has strengthened its positioning towards a model that is omnichannel and regulated, with an increasing weight of online gaming. The projected sales by 2025 (~2,750 M EUR) and the recent results show a growth acceleration, supported by the recovery of LatAm and the expansion of digital platforms. This catalyst includes:

  • Digital business scalability, with higher operating leverage as the user base increases.
  • Signs of strength in cash generation, reflected in the announcement of initial dividends (~65 M EUR in 2025), The company's financial position, which reinforces its attractiveness for income and stability oriented investors.

Regulatory environment and governance:

The regulatory framework continues to be a relevant exogenous factor in the gaming sector, especially in European markets with advertising restrictions. Even so, the geographic diversificationthe operating experience in regulated environments and the absence of relevant litigation or legal overhangs The regulatory framework in certain LatAm countries could be favorable for CIRSA's operations. A favorable evolution of the regulatory framework in certain LatAm countries could act as an important additional upward catalyst, while the post-IPO governance profile favors a more stable and predictable valuation.

Revaluation Scenarios

In a upward scenario, assuming a outstanding performance in strategic acquisitions and a accelerated growth of the digital segment, the target price of Cirsa Enterprises (CIRSA) would be in the range of 22 to 25 EURwhich implies a upside potential from +50% to +70% from current levels near ~14,70 EUR. This scenario is supported by a revenue growth in excess of 15% per annum, driven by expansions in Latin America, M&A synergies above expectations and a EBITDA in excess of EUR 850 M in 2026, together with the possible signing of alliances with global technology platforms to accelerate digitization. Within this framework, the market capitalization could be between EUR 3.7 billion and EUR 4.2 billion., consolidating its position as a leading operator in regulated leisure.

In a baseline/standard scenario, mainly aligned with the consensus of analysts and with a stable organic growth, the target range would be between 18 and 20 EUR, which represents a revaluation potential from +22% to +36%. This scenario contemplates sales close to EUR 2.9 billion in 2026a EBITDA of 740-780 M EURwith 26-28% margins, a reduction of net debt to below EUR 2,000 M and a moderate expansion in more than 80 establishments, in an environment of low regulatory volatility. In this context, the projected capitalization would be in the range of 3,000-3,400 M EUR, This is the most likely scenario if post-IPO dynamics are maintained. Taking into account a bearish scenario, conditioned by tighter regulatory restrictions, If the price of the product is lower, slowdown in key markets or less traction in the digital channel, the price could be in the range between 10 and 12 EUR, which would imply a correction of -18% to -32%. This scenario would assume a limited revenue growth (<5% per year)a EBITDA less than 650 M EUR, increased dependence on external financing and an increasing risk of shareholder dilution, reducing the market capitalization to a range of approximately EUR 1,700-2,000 million..

$CIRSA: Technical Analysis - Post-IPO Structure, Weekly Floor and Trend 1D

In analyzing Cirsa Enterprises (CIRSA), it is key to keep in mind your stock market environment, is a young woman, which debuted this summer (2025). The weekly chart reflects a typical IPO structurewith a initial boost of euphoria followed by a phase of price discovery, which resulted in a severe correction during the following months.

The relevant point arises from the week of November 17, where the price seems to have defined a light-colored technical floor, marked by a bullish hammer candlestick, signal of strong rejection of further falls. Since that turning point, the stock has been confirmed the turnaround, accumulating a revaluation of more than 15% from minimums.

Despite the limited history of a recent IPO, the Weekly RSI provides a relevant technical signal: the indicator has crossed the 50, which in operational terms suggests a transfer of control from selling to buying hands, marking a momentum shift to neutral/bullish.

The most interesting aspect of this configuration is the technical potential available. As the RSI is newly installed in the middle zone, has broad overview before reaching levels of overbought (70). This implies that, from a technical point of view, the price keeps sufficient margin to extend the recovery without showing early signs of depletion in the short term.

image 2 e1767723502872
Source: Cirsa Enterprises (CIRSA) TF 1W | TradingView

Upon entering the daily temporality (1D), we achieved a much more accurate reading of the current movement in Cirsa Enterprises (CIRSA). The price action is clearly constructivethe break of the previous low, accompanied by increase in volume, confirms that a new genuine upward trend. The price respects a sequence of rising minima that act as dynamic support zone, However, even so, given the distance from the 50-session EMA, a new, a new moderate technical pullback to gain momentum before attacking the next relevant maximum.

The movement health is supported by the RSI, which is maintained at levels close to 60 and in the process of testing its moving average. This range represents the optimum impulse zone, clear buying strength, with no signs of overbought (70) ni negative deviations that invite caution in the short term.

On the other hand, the MACD provides the structural confirmation signal. The indicator has successfully completed its transition from negative to positive territory, with the fast line dominating the slow and both located above the zero line. This technical behavior suggests that the movement has ceased to be a punctual rebound to become a structural impulsive phase.

This set of signals configures a manual bullish setupwith high probability of continuity. The dominant bias is clearly bullish, with the technical objective placed in the recovery from September highs.

image 3 e1767723520625
Source: Cirsa Enterprises (CIRSA) TF 1D | TradingView

Share

TABLE OF CONTENTS